It doesn’t appear right now that the High Country will have a white Christmas this year. The National Weather Service – Blacksburg facebook page posted two images to illustrate the white Christmas probabilites from 1981-2010:
The image below shows the historical probability of at least 1 inch of snow depth being observed Christmas morning. Across our region, over the past 30 years, the probability has been between 10 and 20% for most areas. Southside Virginia and the Piedmont of North Carolina have had around or just under a 5% chance, while the highest elevations of Southeast West Virginia and Northwest North Carolina are closer to 50%.
Looking at the longer range computer models, a general warm pattern is expected to persist through next weekend, thus the chance of a white Christmas this year is likely below the historical average.
Here’s an updated image NWS Blacksburg posted today